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Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
[版面:股海弄潮][首篇作者:Goofinaround] , 2019年06月02日02:56:57 ,54649次阅读,451次回复
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nyan
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发信人: nyan (只喝可乐的猫), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 16 10:08:21 2020, 美东)

Re

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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 16 10:39:55 2020, 美东)

现在拿着TSLA就是拼信仰,精神原子弹,不管盘前盘后如何起伏,静等一个炸雷,[email protected]
/29。
万一ER前后股价发疯冲过600,那我就不贪不拿了,全卖掉。现在股价@498,我加了300
股。

【 在 wt286021788 (KK) 的大作中提到: 】
: 盘前跌了,大神怎么看呀



--
2Young2Naive

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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 17 10:39:59 2020, 美东)

这300股投机仓,513卖了。其它不动。


【 在 Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 现在拿着TSLA就是拼信仰,精神原子弹,不管盘前盘后如何起伏,静等一个炸雷,ER
@1
: /29。
: 万一ER前后股价发疯冲过600,那我就不贪不拿了,全卖掉。现在股价@498,我加了
300
: 股。



--
2Young2Naive

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NYFZ
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发信人: NYFZ (lot), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 17 17:41:41 2020, 美东)

niu

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Bigfish237
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发信人: Bigfish237 (Bigfish237), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 19 20:48:23 2020, 美东)

膜拜 分析操作的太牛了 希望还能跟上香颂姐的操作喝点汤
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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 18:26:12 2020, 美东)

大众汽车CEO讲话摘录,pretty much what those of us defending Tesla have been
saying all along, but are ridiculed for by the haters。



--
2Young2Naive

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此主题相关图片如下:

[删除]

 
SlowHammer
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发信人: SlowHammer (SlowHand), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 19:21:25 2020, 美东)

做长线类似特斯拉这样的真的好难,虽然知道这个是未来的方向,但是短期起伏太大了

大众还是有明白人,但是传统企业转变真难
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cocoon757
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发信人: cocoon757 (Cindi), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 20:20:35 2020, 美东)

你看下苹果从100b到1t
也至少三次接近腰斩

【 在 SlowHammer (SlowHand) 的大作中提到: 】
: 做长线类似特斯拉这样的真的好难,虽然知道这个是未来的方向,但是短期起伏太大了
: 大众还是有明白人,但是传统企业转变真难




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SlowHammer
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发信人: SlowHammer (SlowHand), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 20:43:01 2020, 美东)

苹果的可是一直赚钱的
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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 21:31:21 2020, 美东)


【 在 Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 上海工厂下周一, 毛豆3新车出货仪式。下周还有Q4出货总数发布。
: https://twitter.com/realChaoZhou/status/1210592365338972163/video/1
: 看到$4200的目标价位我也是醉了。是不是贫穷限制了我们的想象力???
:

Tesla新的5年目标价$6000!!是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的,
改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了,如果10年后美国电车销量能够
反超油车的话。


Tesla stock could hit $6,000 per share in the next five years, analyst says 
Emily McCormick Reporter Yahoo Finance

The firm that once predicted Tesla (TSLA) shares would cross the
$4,000 mark delivered a new, even more bullish price target for the
electric-vehicle maker.

Shares of Tesla could be worth $6,000 each in the next five years, Ark
Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney told Yahoo Finance’s The Final
Round Wednesday.

The soaring target implies a return of more than 1,000% from Tesla’s
closing prices Wednesday. At $6,000 per share, Tesla’s market
capitalization would leap well above the $1 trillion mark, based on shares
outstanding as of its latest quarterly earnings update. Tesla’s current
market capitalization is north of $90 billion, or more than that of Ford (F)
and GM (GM) combined.

The $6,000 per-share level is Ark’s bull case scenario, implying a best-
case situation for Tesla over the next few years.

“That’s assuming our bull case assumptions for the EV (electric vehicle)
market,” Keeney said. “Broadly what’s changed in our assumptions over the
past few years is, we’ve always said that Tesla was three years ahead on
batteries, autonomous hardware and autonomous data collection. And really we
’re adding software to that, over-the-air software updates.”

“What we’ve seen happen is really the rest of the auto market, shockingly,
is really so far behind Tesla,” she added. “I mean there hasn’t been an
EV produced that’s on par with the Model S which came out, you know 7-8
years ago. And so we’re just seeing it move further ahead on all of those
fronts.”

Ark’s investment thesis mirrors that of some other traditional firms on
Wall Street, which have recently pointed to Tesla’s troves of collected
data as a launching point for future developments in autonomy.

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch on Monday raised his price target on Teslato
$612 from $385, citing in part Tesla’s “600,000 cars on the road
collecting data from all of their sensor suites” helping the company “
redesign their autonomous system.”

The average 12-month price target on Tesla’s stock is $354.26, according to
Bloomberg-compiled data on 30 firms delivering price targets over the past
three months, not including Ark’s call. Shares of Tesla closed at $518.50
each on Wednesday.

Keeney noted that Ark Invest will be publishing an updated model and Tesla
price target in the next few weeks.

‘Their opportunity could just run away with them’

In the past month alone, Tesla’s stock jumped nearly 50% as deliveries came
online from its Shanghai Gigafactory, China’s first wholly owned car
factory by a U.S. automaker.

That factory handed over its first vehicles to public customers within a
year of breaking ground in Shanghai in January 2018, bringing Tesla to the
world’s largest auto market at a much faster than expected pace.

“We think this is just going to accelerate that story,” Keeney said.
“It’s going to help the cost structure, it’s going to help Tesla scale
in a capital-efficient matter.”

And in the U.S., Keeney said she didn’t think a future where Tesla was the
No. 1 domestic automaker would be such “a wild assumption, especially in
the autonomous car space where it’s a winner-takes-most market.”

“We think they’re going to be able to launch an autonomous taxi service in
the next few years. I think their opportunity could just run away with them
,” Keene said. “And if you look at the other US automakers, I mean again
their EV platforms aren’t as great and they’re really behind on the data
collection that you need to get an autonomous platform off the ground.”



Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.



303/28811
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2Young2Naive

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lagolago
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发信人: lagolago (lagolago), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 21:41:03 2020, 美东)

$6000!不夸张
market CAP 1T
It is entirely possible if Tesla gets FSD and Robotax fully roll out in 6
years.

In fact, 500B should be easy if Tesla can sell more cars with the push of
China  and  Germany.
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SlowHammer
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发信人: SlowHammer (SlowHand), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 21:50:28 2020, 美东)

呵呵,6000太遥远,下周先上到600再说
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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 22:17:39 2020, 美东)

【 在 lagolago (lagolago) 的大作中提到: 】
: $6000!不夸张
: market CAP 1T
: It is entirely possible if Tesla gets FSD and Robotax fully roll out in 6
: years.
: In fact, 500B should be easy if Tesla can sell more cars with the push of
: China  and  Germany.


TSLA从500到6000,相当于AAPL从27到300。两者都是革命性的新产品取代旧产品,但是
AAPL乘着08年次贷危机触底之后美股世纪大长牛的东风,还花了十年多的时间才完成这
个过程,TSLA有这个东风外挂的优势吗?更别说手机更新换代速度远超汽车。如果5年
就能达标6000,除非是每辆特斯拉电车都加装Falcon火箭助推。

半年多前我开这个楼唱多TSLA的时候,舆论是哀鸿遍野衰的一逼。现在股价翻两番了,
舆论又是利令智昏牛的一逼。人云亦云的foolish mass总是喜欢从一个极端走到另一个
极端,什么时候理性才能超越感性?



--
2Young2Naive

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stockhero
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发信人: stockhero (stockloser), 信区: Stock
标  题: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 22:32:30 2020, 美东)

这个帖子确实暴露了高手和蠢材的区别

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SlowHammer
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发信人: SlowHammer (SlowHand), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 22:46:11 2020, 美东)

LL虽然也炒特斯拉,但是显然是insider
我觉得股市里涨多少目标不太重要,重要的是涨跌的确定性,如果确定性很大,那就值
得下单。否则不如去买彩票
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cocoon757
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发信人: cocoon757 (Cindi), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 20 23:29:14 2020, 美东)

对六年内实现完全自动驾驶不抱希望
所以去掉taxibot看多少钱差不多

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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jan 21 16:28:33 2020, 美东)

今天TSLA跳高大涨 +7.19% to 547.2,还创了新高 @ 548.58。
这种疯狂的melt up涨法,有点像hardcore short seller capitulation开始了。

回头得查查特斯拉空头持股数据,验证一下。



309/29767
--
2Young2Naive

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ttsj
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发信人: ttsj (yuer), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jan 21 16:45:13 2020, 美东)

等姐分析结果!👍

【 在 Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天TSLA跳高大涨 +7.19% to 547.2,还创了新高 @ 548.58。
: 这种疯狂的melt up涨法,有点像hardcore short seller capitulation开始了。
: 回头得查查特斯拉空头持股数据,验证一下。
: 309/29767



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SlowHammer
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发信人: SlowHammer (SlowHand), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jan 21 16:50:00 2020, 美东)

我把剩下一手卖了,差不多卖在545左右


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Goofinaround
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发信人: Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 特斯拉:TSLA股价将会止跌回升
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jan 21 18:18:23 2020, 美东)

【 在 Goofinaround (香颂   fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Tesla新的5年目标价$6000!!是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的,
: 改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了,如果10年后美国电车销量能够
: 反超油车的话。
:

老美消费者当下的购车意愿以及未来EV供需趋势,具体数据在今天发表的这篇报道里:


Tesla created demand for electric cars, but only for Teslas
Keith Naughton, Bloomberg Published 9:56 am CST, Tuesday, January 21, 2020


Tesla's stock is soaring, and traditional auto manufacturers are staging
glitzy presentations of new plug-in models. You'd think the electric-vehicle
age was finally dawning.

But so far, Tesla is the only car company looking likely to benefit in the
coming years. Look at every other corner of the U.S. auto industry -- the
world's most valuable automaker, dealers, consumer surveys and market
forecasts -- and a more ominous picture emerges.

A top American executive for Toyota Motor Corp., whose market value is still
more than double Tesla's even after Elon Musk's epic run, recently warned
of electric-car catastrophe. Auto retailers caution growth will be slow,
citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. 【And far more U.S.
shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug
in.】

The cause for concern remains as EVs start to appear in showrooms in greater
numbers. 【The models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121
models in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive.
But the researcher sees all those vehicles claiming just 5.5% of U.S. sales
in 2025.】

"We're going to see electrified Armageddon," Bob Carter, Toyota's executive
vice president of North American sales, told reporters in December. "Supply
is going to get ahead of true customer demand."

There is irony, of course, in Carter predicting an EV reckoning just as
Tesla was wrapping up a record year. The dim view he holds is not unique
among legacy automakers, which have spent more than a century building and
selling cars that burn fossil fuel. But that cautious mindset is rooted in
pragmatism -- profits remain elusive in the high-cost, high-price EV
business.

That's why Toyota and other automakers have been reluctant to dive head-
first into EVs until they're closer to reaching price parity with internal
combustion engine vehicles, which Bloomberg NEF predicts 【will happen
around 2024.】

Tesla is being rewarded for not waiting: Its shares surged another 6% on
Tuesday to $540.94, a new intraday record. The stock has doubled since Tesla
reported a surprise third-quarter profit in October, bringing the company
closer to a $100 billion market value.

EV sales are expected to grow to be roughly the size of the shrinking mid-
size car segment by mid-decade, to about 934,000 units, LMC says. But
whereas the meager family sedan market will be split between just 13 models,
the researcher expects there to be more than nine times as many EVs
fighting for air.

Thanks to its hot-selling Model 3 sedan, Tesla accounted for nearly eight-in
-10 EV sales in America last year. By 2025, LMC sees Tesla offering seven
models that will account for a quarter of segment sales. That would leave
the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of
6,145 per model, or about 118 units a week.

"It's tough to make a business out of that volume per EV," said Jeff
Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC. "Electric vehicles
are the future. What's in question is when that future will arrive and when
it pays off? It's a long road and there definitely could be some carnage
along the way."

Automakers, fearing they'll be left behind if they don't accelerate their
shift from the internal combustion engine, are going to great lengths to
build buzz for new electric models.

Ford staged a star-studded unveiling of its Mustang Mach-E in an airplane
hangar a short stroll from SpaceX, Musk's rocket company. Porsche debuted
its Taycan using Niagara Falls, a Chinese wind farm and a German solar site
as backdrops.

But with the notable exception of the Model 3, consumers have not been
charged up by the highly touted electric offerings already on the market.

Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9% last year and the Nissan Leaf
slumped 16%, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz
put off the U.S. debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audi
struggled to sell their first electric offerings.

【So far, only Tesla and its billionaire chief executive officer have come
up with an alluring amalgam of status and sex appeal.】

"Tesla has created the market by having a mystique," said Art St. Cyr, the
head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co., pointing to Musk's
Model 3. "If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn
't sell them in those numbers."

Honda, Ford and Toyota, which all have a history of selling hybrids, see
them prevailing for the time being because mainstream buyers continue to
suffer "range anxiety" -- the fear of being stranded by running out of juice
in an EV.

"People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced," St. Cyr
said.

General Motors Co. is jumping more aggressively into EVs, with plans to
field 20 models worldwide by 2023 and sell 1 million by 2026. It's joining
forces with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd. to build a $2.3 billion battery
factory in Lordstown, Ohio, where the car manufacturer stopped building
gasoline-fueled Chevrolet Cruze compacts last year.

"Customers aren't interested in hybrids," Mary Barra, GM's CEO, said during
an industry conference in November.

【But a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers
are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure
electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the
highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.】

【Government mandates have made China the world's top market for EVs, and
European regulators also are stimulating demand with incentives to help
reach more stringent goals for reduced emissions.】

【But in the U.S., where President Donald Trump has sought to ease car-
pollution rules and fuel is cheap, consumers are in no hurry to ditch the
gas pump. The Deloitte study found consumers in the U.S. are most concerned
about a lack of charging stations.】

"The automotive ecosystem still has some work to do in terms of making EVs
as easy and convenient as internal-combustion engines," said Craig Giffi,
Deloitte's vice chairman.

The onslaught of new EVs coming could actually help solve the problem. Until
now, most EVs other than Tesla's have been boring "compliance cars" aimed
at meeting tougher regulations, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive
engineering at 【AAA, which just conducted a survey that found 96% of EV
owners would buy another because the experience was better than expected.】

"Most people are looking for a crossover utility vehicle these days,"
Brannon said. "Now, we're seeing some of those coming, and that's what it's
going to take. It has to be something people want to drive and can get
excited about."

【The pickup segment, home to the three best-selling models in the U.S., is
about to get jolt, too. Musk caused a sensation with the unveiling of the
Cybertruck in November.】 Ford has an electric truck under development
recently filmed towing 1 million pounds of loaded rail cars. And Amazon.com
Inc.-backed Rivian Automotive Inc. plans to roll out its R1T starting late
this year.

But for all the hype about the chips automakers are pushing forward on the
table, it's unclear when or if their gamble will pay off.

"Somebody's got to buy these things," said Toyota's Carter. "There is a
market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?"




--
2Young2Naive

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