发信人: guvest (我爱你老婆Anna), 信区: Programming
标 题: Let’s discuss the death rate
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Feb 5 21:19:26 2020, 美东)
D = death population today
I = infected population today
C = cured population today
S = suspected population today
Let’s define the death rate as :
AFTER the event finished, the total death population / total infected
Since the event did not finish yet, we need a statistic algorithm to infer
the death rate based on different assumptions.
Below is some simple candidates:
(1) D/I, ignored the delay cure, delay confirmed, etc
(2) D/(D plus C), ignored the suspected population
Would you please give some more estimation of the death rate?
I believed that the total average of all algorithms will be very accurate.
These type of group wisdom had been verified by a baseball game
※ 修改:·guvest 於 Feb 5 21:21:02 2020 修改本文·[FROM: 76.]
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